African politics

BIRDS OF A FEATHER

African politics can help us understand why so many white people support Donald Trump

The silent "majority." (Reuters/Stephen Lam)

For Americans trying to understand this year’s topsy-turvy presidential campaign—especially the rise (and likely fall) of populists like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders—African politics is a good place to start.

The somewhat-surprising link is the result of ethnic politics. In many African countries, it is ethnicity—rather than class, ideology, religion or other potential political identities—that drives politics, determining electoral outcomes and the state’s distribution of resources among citizens. As demonstrated by a range of scholars (led by David Horowitz), this is often a function of the relative size of a country’s main ethnic groups: If no one group represents a clear majority of citizens, or if the largest ethnic group is relatively small and/or shrinking relative to minority groups, ethnic politics are more likely to be prominent.

Without an obviously dominant group, ethnic identity becomes an increasingly salient factor in political, economic and social competition among citizens—particularly in times of economic stress. Savvy politicians—so called “ethno-political entrepreneurs”—have a greater incentive to mobilize on ethnic grounds,

exploiting voters’ sense of ethnic threat or opportunity to win power. This is particular true among members of small and/or shrinking ethnic majorities, groups whose economic and social privileges may be most threatened by changing demographics.

Consider, for example, the recent headline-grabbing political protests in Kenya, which is gearing up for general elections next year. Ethnic politics have long ruled the day in Kenya (at least in part) because the largest Kikuyu ethnic group represents only 22% of the population, impeding Kikuyu attempts at dominance and driving incentives for rival Luhya, Luo, Kalenjin and Kamba groups (representing 14%, 13%, 12%, and 11% respectively) to try displace them. This dynamic has lead to strongman politics and a history of politically driven ethnic violence, including an infamous burst after disputed 2007 elections which killed over 1,000 people and displaced at least 300,000.

Kenya has made major political and economic strides since 2007—including the adoption of a new constitution, a reformed judiciary, and impressive strides in economic growth and diversification—making another sustained outbreak of ethnic violence in the coming election cycle unlikely. Nonetheless, politics—including last week’s protests, which resulted in one fatality—are still driven by ethnicity and ethnic competition, and will probably remain so for the forseeable future.

The Real Style --------- NP 2016