The financial media tend to report breathlessly about what the stock market did yesterday. But savvy economic analysts have always known the bond market is the place to look for a real sense of where the economy is going, or at least where the smart money thinks it is going.
And right now, if the bond market is correctly predicting the economic path ahead, we should all be terrified.
But, please, read on before panicking. There’s a lot more to the story.
The stock market can rise and fall for all sorts of reasons, and sometimes for no apparent reason at all. But the bond market, where trillions of dollars change hands and long-term interest rates are determined, is steadier (normally). Its prices are generally tied closely to the outlook for growth and inflation over the years ahead.
The long-term interest rates that currently prevail across all the major advanced economies are consistent with a disastrous economic future. Taken at face value, they imply that the smart money expects inflation will remain extraordinarily low for years to come, and that growth will stay so weak that central banks won’t be able to raise rates for years. It is a shift that has accelerated since Britain’s vote on June 23 to leave the European Union, but one that has been underway for years.
Look at the current shape of the American “yield curve,” the chart of how rates compare for short, medium and long-term bonds. It implies a 60 percent chance of a recession in the next year based on historical patterns, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Long-term interest rates hit record lows last week — which is to say the lowest in the 227-year history of the United States.
The Real Style ------ NP 2016
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